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金融危机“吹哨人”预警：AI泡沫还有不到一年就会破裂！_我的网站

A |     　　曾因准确预测2008年金融海啸而受到广泛关注的澳大利亚经济学家Steve Keen发出最新警报称，人工智能（AI）泡沫还有不到一年的时间就要破裂了。　　他在接受最新采访时表示，当前AI相关投资热潮正在把大量资金推向数据中心和算力基础设施，但相关收入能否覆盖成本仍存疑。他预计，真正能长期留下来的用户带来的收入，大约只有这些公司支出水平的五分之一。　　他警告称，“我认为人工智能泡沫的持续时间不到一年了。    The Pan American Games open Friday in Chile's capital with more than 100 spots available for next year's Paris Olympics and the usual contest to see who will finish second behind the United States in the medals chart.More than 6,800 athletes from 41 countries and territories will compete in Santiago over 17 days. Competitors in 20 sports, including gymnastics, boxing and swimming, will be looking to directly qualify for the Olympics. Other sports will offer spots based on quotas, ranking points or minimum qualification standards.The Pan American Games, the largest multi-sport event in the Americas, are held every four years and precede the Olympics by a year. Santiago, where the streets have been rocked by protests in recent years, will debut as host. About 17,000 volunteers and 3,000 security officers will work at the event.If injuries don't get in the way, the U.S. team in Chile will include 93 Olympians and 32 Olympic medalists in a roster of 631 athletes. Of those, 318 are women and 313 are men. They will compete in 43 of the 46 sports.Brazil, Mexico and Canada are expected to fight for second place in the medals table. The three are bringing some of their biggest stars to the competition, including Brazilian gymnast Rebeca Andrade, Mexican diver Osmar Olvera and Canadian swimmer Maggie Mac Neil.American athletes will seek Olympic qualification in nine sports: breaking, boxing, gymnastics (rhythmic, trampoline), sport climbing, field hockey (men’s and women’s), modern pentathlon, artistic swimming, handball and water polo (men’s and women’s).Athletes in archery, diving, equestrian jumping, table tennis, sailing and shooting can secure quotas that will send them to Paris next year. Those competing in badminton, 3x3 basketball, cycling, taekwondo and triathlon can get ranking points that allow them to qualify. Track and field athletes and swimmers can also get minimum qualification standards for U.S. Olympic team trials.The U.S. team at the Pan American Games has 13 Olympic champions, including nine who won gold in Tokyo — six members of the women's water polo team, fencer Lee Kiefer, shooter Vincent Hancock and swimmer Brooks Curry.The other four won their Olympic titles prior to 2021, including Helen Maroulis and Kyle Snyder in wrestling, and Laura Kraut and McClain Ward in equestrian.Four years ago, the United States won 293 medals in Lima, Peru — 122 gold, 87 silver and 84 bronze. Brazil came in a distant second with 54 gold, 45 silver and 70 bronze. Mexico finished in third with 37 gold, 39 silver and 62 bronze, edging Canada with 35 gold, 65 silver and 52 bronze.As the Olympics did in Japan, the Pan American Games are seeking to reach a younger audience with new sports. Breaking, sport climbing and skateboarding will make their debuts at the event. The latter two have already had a first Olympic competition in Tokyo, while breaking will debut next year in Paris.The opening ceremony of the Pan American Games will take place on Friday at the 47,000-seat Estadio Nacional, around which six new venues for 30 sports were built with an investment of $507 million.Inaugurated in 1938, the Estadio Nacional held its first major sporting event in 1962 when Brazil beat Czechoslovakia 3-1 to win the World Cup title in soccer.Eleven years later, the stadium became a place of horror with extrajudicial killings and torture after the coup d’etat that ousted President Salvador Allende and led him to kill himself in 1973.“People will be surprised by how beautiful this National Stadium Park turned out,” Neven Ilic, the president of organizer Panam Sports, said last week. “All Chileans should feel proud of the level of the facilities and because they will be hosting a celebration never seen before in this country.”The Chilean government says the park that includes the stadium will be a place for the public to practice sports, play and walk as part of the legacy of the Pan Am Games. Authorities also promise to hand over the apartments in the athletes village to families after the event as permanent housing.___AP sports: https://apnews.com/sports。

B | ”　　“那些不活跃的用户正在消失，而来自真正用户的收入（或许能够长期维持）看起来只有这些公司目前成本水平的五分之一左右。所以我预计许多公司会因此遭受巨额亏损。”他补充道。　　2010年，《现实世界经济学评论》（Real-World Economics Review，简称 RWER）的读者投票选出哪位经济学家最早、最清晰地警告了即将到来的金融危机。Keen位居榜首，“末日博士”鲁比尼位居第二。　　并非2008年的重演　　不过，在Keen提出上述警告的同时，他也强调，他并不是在预测一次由银行业引发的系统性金融危机，这一点与2008年不同。他说：“我并不认为这次会像2007年那样出现债务危机，因为相对而言，信贷需求相当低。”　　据悉，Keen使用的数据仅涵盖到2025年第一季度，他估计新增借款所资助的支出占GDP的比例约为4%至6%。

C | 根据他的数据，这一比例曾在2006年第三季度达到15.4%的峰值。　　Keen指出，他关注的触发因素来自金融体系之外——实体供应中断对公司现金流的影响。　　“这并非像2007年那样的金融危机，而是偿还金融业债务的能力危机，因为生产体系已经遭到破坏，”他说道：“我们会看到一些原本完全有能力偿债的公司，突然发现自己拿不到生产所需的投入。

D | ”　　在他看来，接下来将出现一系列破产案例。　　数据中心沦为匹克球场？　　Keen将当前AI热潮类比为19世纪40年代的铁路泡沫，而不是2008年房地产泡沫。他说：“我认为，我们即将看到一个非常大的泡沫破裂，规模堪比19世纪的铁路泡沫，因为太多公司把大笔资金投向了数据中心和AI。

E | ”　　据彭博社汇编的数据显示，今年企业已为数据中心和其他人工智能投资借款超过4100亿美元。另据报道，数据中心运营商QTS Realty为一处与微软相关、位于佐治亚州的设施发行了39亿美元债券，收益率约为7.23%，而这类投资级债券的收益率甚至高于部分中等评级垃圾债。作为对比，美国政府10年期借贷成本约为4.7%。　　Keen认为，放贷方未来可能会后悔当初收取的利率太低。

F | 他说道：“很多数据中心会发现，7%的利率和你最终要承受的损失相比，简直太划算了。”　　他还指出，房地产泡沫从未面临过这样的问题：房子30年后依然能为人们提供住所，而GPU三年后就失去了竞争力。　　他解释说，“当你拥有数据中心时，三四年后，驱动数据中心的GPU就不再具有竞争力了，所以你不得不再次投资。

G | 如果你在续约阶段没有获得足够的收益来弥补这笔投资，那么你就不会续约。”　　这让他对这些建筑本身产生了不太好的看法，并补充道：“所以我认为，把这些数据中心改建成匹克球场，是一个相当合理的设想。

H | ”　　不过目前来看，市场反应与此相反。彭博数据显示，继6月和7月创下历史新高之后，8月份投资级债券发行量再次刷新月度纪录，需求与供应保持同步。买家持续涌入。　　Keen的回答是，市场参与者往往会一直追随热情，直到热情突然消退。“起初，人们仍会被这种狂热裹挟。”当被问及为何专业放贷人总是在这类周期中后知后觉时，他直言：“他们不理解这个周期。

I | ”（文章来源：财联社）。

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